Ever since Covid started, and with all of the economic, social, health, and political dominoes that have kept falling since then, I have tried to avoid paying too much attention to economic forecasts and predictions. As you may have noticed, that big recession so many predicted is still not here. Similarly, I will believe that interest rates are going to fall when I see them fall.
The reality is that there is no playbook for our current environment. I am unaware of a time in history when governments around the world printed trillions of dollars to keep people alive and off hunger lines and to keep banks solvent. No one really knows how economies will evolve after such a shock, and everyone is guessing. That said, I have always thought that cracks in the small business lending market can indicate impending economic challenges. Recently, it has been apparent that the market is shifting.
I share more in my 21Hats column today. Click the button below to continue reading.
