AmiSight 8/29: Job Market Slowdown: What Revised Growth Numbers Mean for Interest Rates

Adjustments to job growth numbers released in March by the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be another sign that the Fed is behind the curve in lowering interest rates.

Depending on who you ask, preliminary benchmark revisions released on Aug. 21 could have ranged from around 400,000 jobs short of estimates to 1 million. A downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years, suggesting the labor market has been cooling for longer than originally thought, Yahoo! Finance reports.

The BLS data show the economy added 2.9 million jobs in the 12 months through March 2024, or an average of 242,000 per month. While revisions of even up to a million jobs would still signal a healthy pace of hiring at 158,000 a month, it is still on a downward trend since the post-pandemic peak.

Monthly job gains show there is a healthy pace of hiring, but economists still expect policymakers to start lowering borrowing costs in September.

Final employment numbers will be released next February after final revisions are incorporated into the January employment report.