AmiSight 7/10: Could My Business Be a Bellwether for the Economy?
- Ami Kassar
- 6 minutes ago
- 1 min read
At the end of my public speaking gigs, I am often asked by someone in the audience to predict what will happen with interest rates or the economy. And my answer has always been the same: “If I knew, I would be chilling out on an exotic beach somewhere, not here talking to you.”
I have not read an economic forecast since the Covid-19 pandemic started – mainly because I don’t think anybody really knows where we’re headed. Until the pandemic, there had never been a time in history when governments around the world printed trillions of dollars to keep people alive, employed, and fed. And even now, the impact and domino effect of those dollars are still working their way through the system. So how can anybody predict with any degree of accuracy what is about to happen?
And yet, despite my cynicism and regardless of the aftereffects of Covid, I am starting to wonder if maybe small business lending could be a leading indicator of economic activity. It does seem plausible given that small businesses are often the first to be hurt in a downturn and among the first to benefit from an upturn.
Continue reading in my 21 Hats column.
